Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,530$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(539 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $175$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(153.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,231$ on 2020-08-25

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,262$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,931.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,931.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,002$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(870 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,952.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,952.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,860$ on 2020-08-25

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $261,174$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,031.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,031.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,445$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,609.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,609.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,714$ on 2020-08-25

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,777,710$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,811,124.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 154.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,811,124.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $178,486$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 65.0)}}\) (asimptote \(159,505.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,545,525$ on 2020-08-25

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $329,821$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,781.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(299,781.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,535$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,546.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,546.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $286,735$ on 2020-08-25

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,891$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,840.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,814$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,667.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,667.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $81,077$ on 2020-08-25

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $237,583$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(8.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{200,218.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(200,218.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,281$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(3.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,977.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,977.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,969$ on 2020-08-25

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 98%
Belarus recovered 96%
Singapore recovered 92%
Pakistan recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 92%
Mauritania recovered 84%
Ghana recovered 81%
Madagascar recovered 78%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 75%
Kazakhstan recovered 72%
Guatemala recovered 67%
Saudi Arabia recovered 65%
Uzbekistan recovered 63%
Denmark recovered 62%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 60%
Afghanistan recovered 59%
Montenegro recovered 58%
Egypt recovered 55%
South Africa recovered 54%
Armenia recovered 54%
Australia recovered 51%
Uruguay recovered 42%
Russia recovered 31%
Venezuela recovered 28%
Japan recovered 27%
Dominican Republic recovered 20%
Vietnam recovered 16%
Brazil recovered 13%
Colombia recovered 12%
Indonesia recovered 6%
Bangladesh recovered 6%
Malawi recovered 5%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,752$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,435.3}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84,435.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,712$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.25 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,678.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,678.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $872$ on 2020-08-25

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,727$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,642.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 72.9)}}\) (asimptote \(68,642.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $652$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(91.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{682.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 82.1)}}\) (asimptote \(682.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $978$ on 2020-08-25

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,435$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,561.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 113.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,561.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(11.6 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,592$ on 2020-08-25

Pakistan⮸

Population $220,892,340$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $293,711$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(2.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{294,026.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(294,026.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,255$ on 2020-08-25

Best fit exponential: \(748 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,369.7}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 80.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,369.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,031$ on 2020-08-25