Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,530$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(539 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $175$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(153.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,231$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $40,262$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.5 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(116.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,931.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(32,931.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,002$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(870 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,952.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,952.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,860$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $261,174$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,031.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,031.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,445$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,609.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,609.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,714$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,777,710$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,811,124.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 154.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,811,124.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $178,486$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 65.0)}}\) (asimptote \(159,505.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,545,525$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $329,821$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,781.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(299,781.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,535$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,546.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,546.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $286,735$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $86,891$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,840.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,814$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,667.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,667.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $81,077$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $237,583$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{200,218.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(200,218.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,281$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(103.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,977.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,977.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,969$ on 2020-08-25